Application of grey model to predict Covid-19 in Indonesia

Covid-19 is rapidly arising in Indonesia due to a lack of awareness of the Covid-19 dangers. It has been recorded that the sum of positive cases is 31.189 cases that happened on the 6th of July 2021. There is still an open opportunity to predict the peak of new cases and the ends of the pandemic. Many models based on various methodologies have been built for this purpose. In this article, we examine the modified Grey Model to predict the development of Covid-19 cases. Using time-series data since the pandemic happened in Indonesia, we modelized the Covid-19 cases with GM (1,1), Grey Markov, Grey Verhulst, and modification of GM (1,1) and Grey Verhults using Fourier series of error residuals methods. The result shows that the best simulation of model fitting was achieved by Grey Verhults using the Fourier series of error residuals. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy shows that GM (1,1) show the best performance among others. We hope that the government can use this model to formulate the best policies so that the development of Covid-19 can be suppressed. © 2023 Author(s).

Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population.

BACKGROUND: Estimating excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributed to coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection provides a comprehensive picture of the mortality burden on society. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age- and sex-specific excess mortality and YLL in Sweden during the first 17 months of the pandemic. METHODS: In this population-based observational study, we calculated age- and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality and excess YLL during 2020 and the first 5 months of 2021 and cause-specific death [deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, other causes and deaths excluding COVID-19] in 2020 compared with an average baseline for 2017-19 in the whole Swedish population. RESULTS: COVID-19 deaths contributed 9.9% of total deaths (98 441 deaths, 960 305 YLL) in 2020, accounting for 75 151 YLL (7.7 YLL/death). There were 2672 (5.7%) and 1408 (3.0%) excess deaths, and 19 141 (3.8%) and 3596 (0.8%) excess YLL in men and women, respectively. Men aged 65-110 years and women aged 75-110 years were the greatest contributors. Fewer deaths and YLL from CVD, cancer and other causes were observed in 2020 compared with the baseline adjusted to the population size in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the baseline, excess mortality and YLL from all causes were experienced in Sweden during 2020, with a higher excess observed in men than in women, indicating that more men died at a younger age while more women died at older ages than expected. A notable reduction in deaths and YLL due to CVD suggests a displacement effect from CVD to COVID-19.

Collaboration of the Stakeholders in Developing Community-Based Tourism in Terong Creative Village, Belitung

Tourism village empowerment needs to collaborate with other communities/institutions (stakeholders), in order to accelerate and expand the tourism village movement to achieve its goals. This study aims to: 1) find out the potential of the Terong Belitung Creative Tourism Village destination;2) find out the forms of collaboration that have been carried out by stakeholders in developing the Terong Belitung Creative Tourism Village;and 3) find out the steps taken by the manager of the Terong Creative Tourism Village in managing the village which is done in accordance with the community interests. This study used a qualitative approach and data collection methods by doing interviews, observation, and documentation. Participants or informants as a source of research data were 6 (six) parties consisting of BNI Bank, BCA Bank, PLN, Tourism Office of Belitung Region, The Government of Terong District, and the Tourism Village Managers. The results of this study indicate that 1) Potential destinations include: River and Sea Tourism in Mangrove Forest in Terong Village, Aik Rusa' Berehun Tourism, Tebalu Simpor Laki Hill Tourism, Agritourism (Agriculture and Plantation), Catfish Pond Groups, Weaving Handicraft Group, Gambus Art and Culture Group, and the Community of Tourism Halfway House Management. 2) The roles of stakeholders are as Police Creator, Coordinator, Facilitator, Implementer, and also BNI, BCA, and PLN as the Accelerators. 3) The real form or contribution of the stakeholders especially from the bank and PLN is to build the homestays and the entrance gates to tourism village areas including the lighting system around the tourist village of Air Rusa Berehum (ARB), and also to conduct various culinary trainings and improvement of human resources training (HR). In improving the development of tourism villages, the role of stakeholders should run well. 4) The steps in managing a tourism village are being carried out by the planning stage, the implementation stage, and the last is the impact of benefits aspect stage. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Technium Social Sciences Journal is the property of Technium Press Constanta and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

An Analysis of the COVID-19 Impact on Business and Social Performance of Islamic Micro-Financial Institutions

Islamic micro-financial institutions (LKMS) provide services for micro businesses in the form of deposits, financing, and social assistance as the main activities. The COVID-19 pandemic engenders an adverse impact, breeding members' inabilities to measure up to their duties. The inabilities are regretted as LKMS should have also been able to assist its members in sustaining as a form of social responsibility. The research aims to prove paradoxes in business and social performance. We applied a descriptive quantitative approach to a secondary data analysis of business and social performance reports during the COVID-19 pandemic until 2021. The research population covered 154 members of the Islamic cooperative parent, and the samples were 51 LKMS in the Islamic cooperative center. Conclusions were drawn from data analysis using stakeholder and stewardship theories. The results demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic incurred negative impacts, i.e., a decreased business performance of LKMS of 8.4% on average for two years. Meanwhile, another finding exhibited an increase in social performance by 27%. Based on the data, we could argue that a decrease in LKMS business performance bred an increase in social performance.

Realizing Complaining Speech Acts of Covid-19 Survivors with a Gender and Education Perspective

This study aimed to describe the complaining speech act strategy used by Covid-19 survivors from the gender and education perspective. Data were collected using structured interviews with 36 hospitalized survivors of different genders. The results indicated that female patients with undergraduate education use the modified blame strategy, while those with non-undergraduate education use the annoyance strategy. Undergraduate women complain more politely than non-undergraduate women and use longer and more interrogative sentences to soften the interlocutor. Non-undergraduate women blame using direct sentences showing irritation. Furthermore, men with undergraduate education use the annoyance strategy, while non-undergraduates use the ill consequences strategy. Undergraduate and non-undergraduate men tend to use aggressive complaining strategies and ask for improvement from their speech partners. However, women with undergraduate education sometimes realize their complaints to their interlocutors more rudely in the form of judgment than non-undergraduate women and men, as well as undergraduate men. © 2023 Lailiyah, Djatmika, Santosa, and Sumarlam.

Modeling Literacy-Based Self-Efficacy in Digital Humanities: An Exploratory Study

Due to the unprecedented Covid-19 outbreak, the learning must be online since March 2020. Most faculties, study programs, lectures, and students were unprepared to embrace online learning. Online learning requires students' self-efficacy. Self-efficacy is a student's perception of their ability to use a tool to complete a given task, achieve a goal, or overcome obstacles in learning. Technology exposure of students in the social sciences is likely to be different from those in science and technology, including in the use of online learning. This study examined the factors that influence the success of online education in the digital humanities field and modeled these factors to measure students' self-efficacy based on technological literacy. An online survey was employed to gather data. The survey instrument was developed based on the variable operationalization. The respondents, who participated voluntarily, were graduate students from humanities study programs of one university in Yogyakarta. There were 89 responses. Data analysis was conducted using SmartPLS Version 3.3. Based on the structural equation modeling of self-efficacy, internet experience, rewards, and attitudes positively influenced digital and visual literacy;internet experience and rewards influenced tool literacy. This exploratory study shows that self-efficacy modeling can be presented in this study. The exploration of this study indicates that the model generated in this study can be applied in other fields of study, especially the social sciences. In various studies, self-efficacy is usually seen as a single construct and is operationalized according to the focus and objectives of the study. One aspect of e-learning is technology. This study focuses on the self-efficacy of e-learning technology, namely technological literacy. Subsequently, technology literacy was manifested as three different constructs: digital, tool, and visual. © 2022, City University of Hong Kong Press. All rights reserved.

Ascorbic Acid vs Calcitriol in Influencing Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1, Nitric Oxide, Superoxide Dismutase, as Markers of Endothelial Dysfunction: In Vivo Study in Atherosclerosis Rat Model.

Introduction: Ascorbic acid and calcitriol were frequently utilized in conjunction as therapy during the COVID-19 pandemic, and individuals with minor symptoms had notable improvements. There have been a few studies, often with conflicting findings, that examine the use of them for endothelium restoration and numerous clinical trial studies that failed to establish the efficacy. The aim of this study was to find the efficacy of ascorbic acid compared to calcitriol on the inflammatory markers monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), nitric oxide (NO), and superoxide dismutase (SOD), as protective agents which play an important role in the early stages of atherosclerosis formation. This study was an experimental in vivo study. Methods: The total of 24 male Rattus norvegicus strain Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups, namely: control/normal group (N), atherosclerosis group (DL) given atherogenic diet, atherosclerosis group given atherogenic diet and ascorbic acid (DLC), and atherosclerosis group given atherogenic diet and calcitriol (DLD) treatment for 30 days. Results: Ascorbic acid and calcitriol treatment was significantly effective (P<0.05) in lowering expression of MCP-1 and increasing NO and SOD level. Calcitriol was superior to ascorbic acid in increasing SOD (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between ascorbic acid and calcitriol in decreasing MCP-1 and increasing NO (P>0.05). Discussion: Both treatments could reduce MCP-1, and increase NO and SOD by increasing antioxidants. In this study calcitriol was superior to ascorbic acid in increasing SOD, but not NO and decreasing MCP-1. According to the theory, it was found that calcitriol through nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) causes a direct increase in the amount of SOD. Nrf2 is an emerging regulator of cellular resistance to oxidants. Conclusion: Ascorbic acid and calcitriol treatment was able to reduce MCP-1 and increase NO and SOD in atherosclerosis rat. Calcitriol was significantly superior in increasing SOD levels compared to ascorbic acid.

The role of CD4+, CD8+, CD4+/CD8+ and neutrophile to lymphocyte ratio in predicting and determining COVID-19 severity in Indonesian patients.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers that are cost-effective and accurate for predicting severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are urgently needed. We would like to assess the role of various inflammatory biomarkers on admission as disease severity predictors and determine the optimal cut-off of the neutrophile-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for predicting severe COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study in six hospitals in Bali and recruited real-time PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients aged >18 y from June to August 2020. Data collection included each patient's demographic, clinical, disease severity and hematological data. Multivariate and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 95 Indonesian COVID-19 patients were included. The highest NLR among severe patients was 11.5±6.2, followed by the non-severe group at 3.3±2.8. The lowest NLR was found in the asymptomatic group (1.9±1.1). The CD4+ and CD8+ values were lowest in the critical and severe disease groups. The area under the curve of NLR was 0.959. Therefore, the optimal NLR cut-off value for predicting severe COVID-19 was ≥3.55, with sensitivity at 90.9% and a specificity of 16.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Lower CD4+ and CD8+ and higher NLR values on admission are reliable predictors of severe COVID-19 among Indonesian people. NLR cut-off ≥3.55 is the optimal value for predicting severe COVID-19.

Prevalence and factors associated with flares following COVID-19 mRNA vaccination in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and spondyloarthritis: a national cohort study (preprint)

Objective To determine prevalence and factors associated with flares post Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccination in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and spondyloarthritis (SpA). Methods A retrospective multi-centre study was conducted (January 2021 to February 2022). Data were collected during index visit, defined as first post-vaccine visit in which the patient had a physician-defined flare, or if at least three months had elapsed since first vaccine dose, whichever came first. Factors associated with flares were identified using mixed effects Cox regression and expressed as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Total of 2377 patients were included (1563 RA, 415 PsA and 399 SpA). Among patients with RA, PsA and SpA, 21.3%, 24.1% and 21.8% experienced a flare respectively. Of those who experienced a flare, only 10.2%, 11.0% and 14.9% were severe in patients with RA, PsA and SpA respectively. Patients with low or moderate/ high disease were more likely to flare compared to those in remission in patients with RA only (HR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.22 – 2.31; HR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.50 – 3.48, respectively). Receiving the Moderna vaccine was associated with a higher HR of flare compared to the Pfizer vaccine in patients with PsA only (HR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.20 – 4.08). Patients who had two vaccine doses were found to be less likely to flare (HR: 0.08, 95% CI: 0.06 – 0.10). HRs of flares were not significantly different among RA, PsA and SpA. Conclusion About one-fifth of patients experienced a disease flare post COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, but most flares were non-severe. Patients with active disease prior to vaccination should be monitored closely for disease flares, especially in patients with RA.

Occupational role and COVID-19 among foreign-born healthcare workers in Sweden: a registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies report that foreign-born healthcare workers (HCWs) in high-income countries have an elevated risk of COVID-19. However, research has not yet specifically evaluated the distribution of COVID-19 among foreign-born workers in different healthcare work groups. We examined the risk of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization among foreign-born HCWs in different occupational roles in Sweden. METHODS: We linked occupational data (2019) of 783 950 employed foreign-born workers (20-65 years) to COVID-19 data registered between 1 January 2020 and 30 September 2021. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization in eight healthcare occupational groups vs. non-HCWs and assessed whether region of birth modified the association between healthcare occupations and COVID-19. RESULTS: All HCWs had a higher risk of COVID-19 outcomes than non-HCWs, but the risk differed by occupational role. Hospital-based assistant nurses had the highest risk (infection: HR 1.78; 95% CI 1.72-1.85; hospitalization: HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.52-2.11); allied HCWs had the lowest risk (infection: HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.10-1.35; hospitalization: HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.59-1.63). The relative hazard of the outcomes varied across foreign-born workers from different regions. For example, the relative risk of COVID-19 infection associated with being a physician compared to a non-HCW was 31% higher for African-born than European-born workers. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of COVID-19 among foreign-born HCWs differed by occupational role and immigrant background. Public health efforts that target occupational exposures as well as incorporate culturally responsive measures may help reduce COVID-19 risk among foreign-born HCWs.

A comprehensive characterisation of patients diagnosed with post-COVID-19 condition in Sweden 16 months after the introduction of the ICD-10 diagnosis code (U09.9): a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive characterisation of patients diagnosed with post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) during the first 16 months of usage of the International Classification of Diseases revision 10 (ICD-10) diagnosis code U09.9 in Sweden. METHODS: We used data from national registers and primary healthcare databases for all adult inhabitants of the two largest regions in Sweden, comprising 4.1 million inhabitants (approximately 40% of the Swedish population). We present the cumulative incidence and incidence rate of PCC overall and among subgroups and describe COVID-19 patients with or without PCC regarding sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, subsequent diseases, COVID-19 severity, and virus variants. FINDINGS: Of all registered COVID-19 cases available for PCC diagnosis (n=506,107), 2.0% (n=10,196) had been diagnosed with PCC using ICD-10 code U09.9 as of 15 February 2022 in the two largest regions in Sweden. The cumulative incidence was higher among women compared to men (2.3% vs 1.6%, p<0.001). The majority of PCC cases (n=7,162, 70.2%) had not been hospitalised for COVID-19. This group was more commonly female (69.9% vs 52.9%, p<0.001), had a tertiary education (51.0% vs 44.1%, p<0.001), and was older (median age difference 5.7 years, p<0.001) compared to non-hospitalised COVID-19 patients without PCC. INTERPRETATION: This characterisation furthers the understanding of patients diagnosed with PCC and could support policymakers with appropriate societal and healthcare resource allocation.

Post-mRNA vaccine flares in autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases: Results from the COronavirus National Vaccine registry for ImmuNe diseases SINGapore (CONVIN-SING).

BACKGROUND: Studies of flares of autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD) after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination are limited by small sample size, short follow up or at risk of selection bias. METHODS: A national retrospective cohort study of consecutive AIIRD patients ≥12 years old, across 8 hospitals who received at least one dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Patients were included from the date of 1st vaccine dose and censored at the time of flare or on the date of the clinic visit at least 3 months from cohort entry, whichever came first. Predictors of flare were determined by Cox proportional hazards analysis. FINDINGS: 4627 patients (73% Chinese, 71% female) of median (IQR) age 61 (48, 70) years were included; 42% Rheumatoid arthritis, 14% Systemic lupus erythematosus and 11% Psoriatic arthritis. 47% were in remission, 41% low disease activity, 10% moderate disease activity and 1% in high disease activity. 18% patients flared, of which 11.7% were within the 3-month period of interest. 11.8% patients improved. Median (IQR) time-to-flare was 60 (30, 114) days. 25% flares were self-limiting, 61% mild-moderate and 14% severe. Older patients (53-65 years and >66 years) had a lower risk of flare [HR 0.6 (95% CI 0.5-0.8) and 0.7 (0.6-0.8) respectively]. Patients with inflammatory arthritis and with active disease had a higher risk of flare [HR 1.5 (1.2-2.0) and 1.4 (1.2-1.6), respectively]. Treatment with conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARDs), immunosuppression and prednisolone was also associated with an increased risk of flare [HR 1.5 (1.1-2), 1.2 (1.1-1.4) and 1.5 (1.2-1.8) for prednisolone ≤7.5 mg respectively]. INTERPRETATION: There was a moderately high rate of AIIRD flares after mRNA vaccination but also improvement in several patients. Severe flares and hospitalisation were rare. Thus, vaccination remains safe and highly recommended.

Mortality Risk Factors in Geriatric Patients Infected with Covid-19 in the Intensive Care Ward at Dr. Soetomo Hospital Surabaya

Background: With the COVID-19 pandemic since December 2019, many people around the world have been infected and affected, one of them is Indonesia. The increasing number of deaths due to COVID-19 infection that occurs in the adult to geriatric age group, especially in geriatrics who often have comorbidities. This study aims to describe the analysis of risk factors for mortality in geriatric patients infected with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit. Method(s): This study is a retrospective observational analytic Single Center study, the study was conducted by taking medical record data from geriatric patients with COVID-19 who were treated in the ICU during the period from February 1 to May 31, 2021. Result(s): Of the 52 patient medical record data, 27 patients died. In this study the mean age, weight, height, BMI and SOFA score;66 years, 70 kg, 160 cm2, 26 kg/m2, and 6. From the results of medical record data, the highest mortality was found in the group with risk factors, namely SOFA score, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, ventilator use, inotropic use, and vasopressor use. Conclusion(s): Mortality in our study was 51.9%. Risk factors that affect mortality in geriatric patients infected with COVID-19 are high SOFA scores, low PaO2/FiO2 ratios, use of ventilators, inotropes, and vasopressors. Copyright © 2022, Anka Publishers. All rights reserved.

Student Satisfaction with Online Learning: A Multigroup Analysis

The Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic "forced” students to attend online classes roughly from mid-March 2020. This situation, which caused universities, among other institutions, to deal with an overnight change in course delivery from traditional face-to-face to online mode, has resulted in many students facing difficulties. They must cope with the available infrastructure, unstable and limited Internet connection, course delivery, and their self-discipline. Male and female students may have different preferences regarding technology use. This study focused on student satisfaction with the above situation and determined whether a difference exists between male and female students using Technology Acceptance Model as the main theoretical background. Seven hypotheses were proposed and tested with the whole dataset and comparisons between the two groups. Due to the strict health protocol, an online survey was employed using Google Form to collect data. Respondents were 327 undergraduate students from one higher institution in Yogyakarta, comprising 140 male and 187 female students. The population consisted of undergraduate students who have been attending online classes since March 2022. A multigroup analysis was performed using SmartPLS 3.3.3. Results indicated no gender difference in all hypothesized relationships. The theoretical contribution can be seen from the use of Internet Quality, User Interface Quality, and Delivery Quality as the three exogenous variables of the proposed model. The practical contribution is that technology designers must pay attention to the different preferences of user groups. © 2022, the author(s).

Identification of Flavonoids of Kalanchoe Pinnata as Candidate Drugs for COVID-19 Gamma-Variant Treatment

Treatment of COVID-19 that is based on plants could be a more cost-effective therapy against the disease. Flavonoids, a group of compounds that have been observed to have various effects, including antiviral activity, were chosen as the candidate molecule for treatment of COVID-19. Kalanchoe Pinnata is one of the plants containing flavonoids that has been demonstrated to have antiviral activity. The structure of ACE2 and various flavonoids were retrieved and cleaned from unnecessary residues. The ACE2 structure was subjected to molecular docking in order to analyze the binding affinity. Following that, the ADME properties of each flavonoid were analyzed accordingly. The QSAR analysis was also performed for each type of flavonoid. Lastly, molecular dynamics simulation was conducted. All of the tested compounds were able to bind to human ACE2 and SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein, but were unable to compete with them as the binding affinity of the compounds to the protein were lower compared to ACE2-Spike interaction. The ADME and toxicity analysis showed that most of the ligands were able to be absorbed by the GI tract, but have low bioavailability. The compounds also cause no major toxicity effects and were able to be sufficiently distributed to the body. Molecular dynamics analysis also revealed that among the compounds, quercetin and rutin were able to interact with ACE2 and Spike protein stably. The QSAR analysis showed that friedelin, kaempferol, quercetin, and rutin are mostly non-toxic, but the high Cramer values indicate that there are no initial safety impressions for these molecules and could cause toxicity. In conclusion, quercetin and rutin have potential to be a candidate for COVID-19 drug development based on the in-silico predictions results obtained. Friedelin and Narcissin whose affinity to the proteins were relatively stronger but had unstable interactions from molecular dynamics simulation results, may also be a potential COVID-19 treatment with further investigation. However, further research is required to assess the effectiveness and also specially to measure the toxicity of the compounds. © 2022 Malaysian Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences.